The full commodity spectrum.No ideological screens.

Richards Bay steam-coal has retraced from the 2022 European-cutoff peak but remains structurally above the 2015–2019 band. Asian demand — India in particular — continues to absorb SA export tonnes, and inland railings via Transnet remain the binding constraint on realised export volumes. Our view: term contracts against ring-fenced Asian off-take carry a defensible margin through the next cycle.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

Newcastle high-CV coal remains the benchmark reference for the seaborne premium market. It has moved on Chinese import policy and Japanese-Korean utility restocking. It is not directly investable for the firm but is our anchor reference for pricing SA thermal at a market-implied discount.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

Brent is not an investable commodity for us, but it remains a first-order macro input: it prices Rand strength, diesel cost across mining fleets, and — via LNG parity — European gas prices that anchor thermal coal. We watch it as a systemic backdrop, not as a position.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

62% Fe CFR China spot has settled into a range shaped by Chinese steel-mill margin and property-sector demand. On a life-of-mine view we favour beneficiated fines-to-lump upgrades over greenfield expansion — capital efficiency is currently better than exposure to marginal ton growth.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

The one commodity where the demand curve is most credibly repricing upward — electrification of transport and grid re-investment are secular tailwinds. Supply response is slow: grade decline in existing mines and permitting timelines for new discoveries mean the medium-term deficit case remains intact.

— Source: IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025

Aluminium is energy-in-metal-form. LME cash reflects both alumina input costs and — decisively — the power price at the smelter gate. South African refined aluminium is exposed to Eskom availability; we do not currently take positions in downstream aluminium.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

Indonesian nickel-pig-iron and HPAL capacity has restructured the global cost curve. Class-1 nickel required for battery-grade sulphate remains a smaller, more disciplined market. We are cautious on generic nickel exposure and selective on battery-grade routes.

— Source: IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025

Zinc treatment charges have compressed as Chinese smelter over-capacity fights for feed. Mined supply is the tighter side of the market. We watch zinc as an early cyclical indicator rather than a portfolio position.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

Lead is largely a secondary-market metal driven by battery replacement cycles. Not part of the firm's active universe.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

Small market, high volatility, dominated by Indonesian and Peruvian supply politics. Tin is a watch-list metal for the electronics decarbonisation story but sits outside the current mandate.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026

Ferrochrome pricing tracks Chinese stainless-steel margins. UG2 chrome from PGM tailings is a strong South African byproduct opportunity. No World Bank benchmark exists — we reference Fastmarkets and Metal Bulletin for indicative prints.

— Source: Fastmarkets FA / Metal Bulletin (indicative)

Manganese ore prices are highly volatile — the 2023–2024 spike on Australian supply disruption is a cautionary tale. Our SA manganese exposure is priced against long-term FeMn steel demand rather than spot.

— Source: Asian Metal / Fastmarkets (indicative)

Vanadium redox-flow batteries remain the demand driver for the metal; near-term pricing is dominated by ferrovanadium demand from Chinese and Indian steel mills. Highveld vanadium is a strategic South African resource.

— Source: Fastmarkets (indicative)

Anthracite trades against a smaller, more specialised market — metallurgical and heating-block demand rather than general power. SA production is a defensible niche with limited elastic supply response elsewhere.

— Source: Argus / Fastmarkets (indicative)

Gold's structural bid remains — central-bank buying, real-rate uncertainty, and continued reserve diversification. South African production is mature but AISC-competitive at current spot. We view gold via ring-fenced tail-of-mine and tailings retreatment opportunities rather than greenfield.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026; World Gold Council

PGM basket economics — not platinum alone — drives South African producer economics. The palladium/rhodium collapse of 2023–2024 has been partially arrested; platinum's hydrogen-economy demand story remains intact but distant. We look at the basket, not the individual metal, when structuring capital.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026; Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report

Industrial demand (solar, electronics) is now the marginal buyer, not investment demand. Mine supply is largely by-product from base metals and gold. We do not take positions in silver directly.

— Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026; Silver Institute

The palladium-to-platinum inversion of the mid-2020s has reset the PGM basket in favour of platinum-heavy resources. Palladium remains a meaningful contributor to SA PGM economics; we underwrite basket-wide.

— Source: LBMA / Johnson Matthey (indicative)

The most volatile metal we track. Small physical market, thin financial market, disproportionate impact on PGM producer earnings. Not directly investable but a critical driver of underlying resource economics.

— Source: Johnson Matthey base price (indicative)

Post-2023 lithium correction has reset developer economics and cleaned out speculative supply. The medium-term EV demand ramp is intact but timing risk has widened. SA lithium exposure is limited — we reference the price as sector signal.

— Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence / Fastmarkets (indicative)

Cobalt supply is dominated by DRC by-product from copper — a structural constraint we cannot correct. Cathode-chemistry shift to LFP has softened the demand curve. Not a current active mandate.

— Source: LME cobalt / Fastmarkets (indicative)

Anode-grade natural flake graphite is a critical component of the battery supply chain that the West does not yet source at scale. SADC deposits exist but few are financeable at current benchmark levels.

— Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (indicative)

The rare-earth market is dominated by Chinese processing capacity, not mining. Even where SADC deposits are proven, the mid-stream separation gap is the binding investable constraint. We watch this space; we are not currently deployed.

— Source: Argus REE / Asian Metal (indicative)