Category IV · Critical & future minerals
Nickel.
Stainless steel + battery cathode metal. Indonesian supply has reshaped global market dynamics.
Benchmark
LME cash settlement
Unit
US$ / tonne
Current price · 3-mo forward avg
US$ 16,500 / tonne
Apr — Jul 2026 (forward 3-mo avg)
Stainless steel + battery cathode metal. Indonesian supply has reshaped global market dynamics.
Price · LME cash settlement
2016 — 2035
Solid line: historical annual averages. Dashed line: forward projections (consensus).
Top 5 producing countries
- 01
Indonesia
50%
Sulawesi / Halmahera — Chinese-backed HPAL build-out
- 02
Philippines
11%
Lateritic ore exporter
- 03
Russia
8%
Norilsk Nickel (Class 1)
- 04
New Caledonia
5%
French Pacific territory; major laterites
- 05
Australia
5%
Western Australia sulphide + laterite
Leading companies
- 01
Norilsk Nickel
World's largest Class 1 nickel producer
- 02
Vale
Indonesia, Brazil, Canada operations
- 03
BHP
Nickel West (WA); strategic divestment underway
- 04
Tsingshan Group (China)
Largest stainless-steel + nickel integrated producer
- 05
Sumitomo Metal Mining
Indonesia + Philippines HPAL operator
Of note
- §
Indonesia's share of global nickel supply has gone from ~10% to ~50% in less than a decade.
- §
The 2022 LME nickel short squeeze led to the largest single-day price move in commodity-exchange history.
- §
Cathode nickel demand (NMC, NCA) is the highest-growth segment; stainless steel remains dominant by volume.
Sources
LME, USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 · S&P Global Commodity Insights. Curated quarterly. Forward projections are consensus indications and are not a guarantee of future prices.